The most common mistake of marketers is to overestimate. What TV can do, what the Web can do, if your’re willingly trying to push something that you benefit from directly, it rarely works. Mostly because it’s based on the assumption of a predictable chain reaction guided by rationality. Perfect world.
Whereas the second most common mistake is to underestimate, especially when it comes to irrationality. Pick a phenomenon like people buying a 15-year old single just to prevent a new single to hit #1 in the charts — this is nothing that can be explained with rational behaviour. But it works, because the ones who start the movement obviously don’t profit from it. Some years ago, people would just not have bought anything. It’s the fun of the idea that makes it work.
We used to think of consumption as a pro statement – you buy what you like. Now it’s a con statement too — you buy what you dislike less, though you don’t really like the thing itself. Which makes it even more complicated to analyze who buys what for what reason, not even speaking of trying to predict what the situation will be like tomorrow. Once again, the game has dramatically changed.