A German marketing research association held a conference last month where several experts analyzed current trends in economics with regard to consumption and marketing. It’s quite interesting to look at their points of view from a different angle.
- “The middle class still exists.” — Professor Wagner from the German Institute of Economics Research said that although the layer of middle income has diverged to either side of the edge, there are no more rich people than a few years ago. This is obvious as long as people keep spending more money the more money they earn. Who doesn’t save or invest won’t become wealthy. Still, it’s important to note that the symbols of wealth haven’t changed over the years. One generation back, when you had a Mercedes, you had to be rich. That’s not the case today, but people still assume it were. It’s important to be clear about the context you’re measuring.
- “There is a market for middle brands.” — Dr Adlwarth from the GfK Group pointed out that in the last years the competition in consuming goods was between major brands at the pricing top end and no-brand products on the bottom end. Consumers went for either-or, and there was not a lot of middle ground. This trend, he went on, changed in 2009, when suddenly they saw a trend in rising market share of middle brands, which are characterized as regional and rich in tradition.
Here’s a different point of view: There’s 3 kinds of stuff you can buy: Commodities, which are cheap and don’t help improve your image. Premium goods, which are expensive and for that reason they raise your image (see Mercedes example above). And then there’s stuff you care about. Things you buy because you like them regardless of cost. This is the niche category. Products that are not for everyone, the manufacturers of which have understood they can’t please everyone and they don’t have to. Vita Cola is successful in the eastern regions of Germany, but not in the west. Blackwood Forest ham sells most successfully in the southern regions but not in the north. There’s an infinite number of products with only a small market share but each of them has enough margin so the companies still make a solid profit. This has nothing to do with middle. Middle is just a convenient, yet useless wrapper because Dr Adlwarth does not seem to acknowledge the existence and power of passion and tribes. - “The digital middle” — This is actually a false label for the talk by the Global Director Consumer Electronics of the GfK Group. He analyzed the market for TV sets. Not quite a surprise that it turned out that when LCD and plasma TV were introduced, they were very expensive, but the more the overall market share grew, the pricing range diverged. Honestly, I have no idea why I would have anyone talk about the mechanics of the adoption curve these days. It’s not leading edge science any more.
- “Communication for middle market brands” — I won’t comment on this talk by an advertiser because it makes me throw up. As usual, a wrong concept leads to wrong conclusions that, if presented conclusively, will appeal to an uneducated audience.
So why all this obsessing about the middle? Because it’s an easy concept. It’s less scary to think of high, middle and low instead being on a knife’s edge. It allows settling for less — if you’re not a superstar, you’re not automatically a loser, because there’s still the middle. Middle sounds good, it’s not too much in any direction.
But middle also artificially creates a new battlefield which in reality doesn’t exist. It’s easier for analysts to look at a large plane than an infinite number of small planes, because only on a large plane there can be a battle and therefore a winner. But there is no large plane and no battle for the middle. Middle is a transitional state: You’re either on your way up or the way down, no place where you can stay for long, because the winners are automatically promoted to the top end and the losers go out of business. No matter if it’s in the overall market or in a niche.